Overview 47 2019
Nov 23

Week 47 of 2019, Market breadth

By FXVNOL | Tam thom 3

Market breadth – The number of stocks participating in, and contributing to, the market’s strength (the “breadth” of the rally) has risen. Currently, 75% of S&P 500 companies’ stock prices are above their 200-day moving averages, reflecting steady moves higher. This is up from 50% in May of this year, when there were growing concerns of an approaching recession. This time last year (before the December sell-off), this measure was roughly 40%

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[Tam thom 3] - week 46 of 2019
Nov 17

Week 46 of 2019, Is the Market Too Calm

By FXVNOL | Tam thom 3

While there is no shortage of drama these days, you haven’t found much of it in the stock market recently. Four new daily record highs were reached last week, bringing 2019’s total to 221. The market has marched steadily higher as volatility has crept lower. Seven percent of the S&P 500’s 24%1 rise in 2019 has come in the past six weeks, reflecting growing optimism from progress in the trade war, better-than-expected third-quarter corporate earnings announcements, and incoming data signaling that the U.S. and global economies are not careening toward recession. Meanwhile, fluctuations in the stock market have been quite low, with the VIX index (a measure of short-term volatility) falling near the lowest (most tranquil) levels of the year.

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[Tam thom 3] - week 45 of 2019
Nov 09

Week 45 of 2019, Better-than-expected earnings

By FXVNOL | Tam thom 3

Stocks extended their recent gains, finishing higher for the fifth straight week. Recent signs of progress on trade negotiations, along with better-than-expected corporate earnings, has helped recession fears to subside over the past month, boosting investor sentiment. With the global growth backdrop starting to stabilize, Treasury yields climbed to their highest level in three months

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[Tam thom 3] - week 44 of 2019
Nov 03

Week 44 of 2019, There’s Still Steam

By FXVNOL | Tam thom 3

U.S. stocks climbed to fresh record highs after the October jobs report showed that the economy added more jobs than expected. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time this year and signaled a pause in lowering rates to assess economic conditions. While economic growth has slowed, as the third-quarter GDP estimate showed last week (from 2.0% to 1.9%), several risks have lessened since the Fed first lowered interest rates in July, namely the de-escalation of U.S./China trade tensions, uncertainty on the Brexit front, and weakness in manufacturing that appears contained. In our view, the U.S. economy remains on solid footing, supported by a strong labor market, still-rising corporate earnings, and low interest rates

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[Tam thom 3] - week 40 of 2019
Oct 05

Week 40 of 2019 : Unemployment reached a 50-year low

By FXVNOL | Tam thom 3

The US economy created 136,000 in September, a bit short of the 145,000 jobs expected by the markets. Over the course of 2019, the economy has produced an average of 160,000 jobs a month, compared with 223,000 last year. Revisions over the past two months added 45,000 jobs and pushed down the overall unemployment rate to 3.5% from 3.7%, the lowest level in 50 years.

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[Tam thom 3] - week 39 of 2019
Sep 28

Week 39 of 2019 : Keeping Politics Out Of Your Portfolio

By FXVNOL | Tam thom 3

While politics grab headlines ultimately, it’s economics and earnings that drive long-term portfolio returns. While we expect political uncertainty to continue as we approach the 2020 presidential election, it’s important to note that, historically, markets have returned 10% on average regardless of which party controlled the White House or Congress

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