Current polls show 10 point lead for the Conservatives however we need to remember a similar showing ahead of the 2017 election which ended with Theresa May losing her majority in Parliament. The focus on Brexit will also result in a breakdown in traditional voting lines, with many constituencies potentially switching hands due to the ideological differences over Brexit.
Market breadth – The number of stocks participating in, and contributing to, the market’s strength (the “breadth” of the rally) has risen. Currently, 75% of S&P 500 companies’ stock prices are above their 200-day moving averages, reflecting steady moves higher. This is up from 50% in May of this year, when there were growing concerns of an approaching recession. This time last year (before the December sell-off), this measure was roughly 40%
While there is no shortage of drama these days, you haven’t found much of it in the stock market recently. Four new daily record highs were reached last week, bringing 2019’s total to 221. The market has marched steadily higher as volatility has crept lower. Seven percent of the S&P 500’s 24%1 rise in 2019 has come in the past six weeks, reflecting growing optimism from progress in the trade war, better-than-expected third-quarter corporate earnings announcements, and incoming data signaling that the U.S. and global economies are not careening toward recession. Meanwhile, fluctuations in the stock market have been quite low, with the VIX index (a measure of short-term volatility) falling near the lowest (most tranquil) levels of the year.
Stocks extended their recent gains, finishing higher for the fifth straight week. Recent signs of progress on trade negotiations, along with better-than-expected corporate earnings, has helped recession fears to subside over the past month, boosting investor sentiment. With the global growth backdrop starting to stabilize, Treasury yields climbed to their highest level in three months
U.S. stocks climbed to fresh record highs after the October jobs report showed that the economy added more jobs than expected. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time this year and signaled a pause in lowering rates to assess economic conditions. While economic growth has slowed, as the third-quarter GDP estimate showed last week (from 2.0% to 1.9%), several risks have lessened since the Fed first lowered interest rates in July, namely the de-escalation of U.S./China trade tensions, uncertainty on the Brexit front, and weakness in manufacturing that appears contained. In our view, the U.S. economy remains on solid footing, supported by a strong labor market, still-rising corporate earnings, and low interest rates